As of: 30.10.2026, 00:10 (Zurich time). Figures may change.
What happened
For most of this year, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was fighting a strong franc. When the Middle East war broke out, money rushed into the franc as a safe haven, pushing it to decade highs against the dollar and euro. The SNB issued an unprompted threat to intervene and sold francs through the first half of the year, as Bloomberg via swissinfo recounts.
That chapter now looks closed. On 22 October, the SNB published the summary of discussion from its 24 September decision. The key line: "Since the June monetary policy assessment, there had been little safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc." According to the summary, as quoted by swissinfo, an increased willingness to intervene "is no longer necessary in the current environment."
The policy rate stays at 0%, where it has been since 20 June 2025, according to the SNB's rates page.
Why the franc has weakened
The SNB says the franc lost around 3% in trade-weighted terms between its June and September meetings. Its explanation is simple: other central banks have responded to energy-driven inflation with higher rates, while Switzerland has stayed at zero. That widened interest rate gap, together with the franc's low volatility, made the franc attractive as a funding currency in carry trades: investors borrow cheaply in francs and invest in higher-yielding currencies (SNB summary).
Current levels, per the SNB on 29 October 2026:
1 EUR = CHF 0.9227
1 USD = CHF 0.8287
1 GBP = CHF 1.1031
SARON: -0.05% (fixing of 28 October)
10-year Confederation bond yield: 0.536%
Inflation: higher, but still low
Swiss inflation rose to +1.0% year on year in September, up from 0.8% in August, according to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Swissinfo notes this is the highest level in two years. The detailed FSO release shows where the pressure is coming from:
Petroleum products were up 31.2% on a year earlier.
Imported goods were up 2.1%, while domestic goods rose only 0.7%.
Core inflation (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) was just 0.5%.
In other words, this is mostly imported energy inflation, helped along by a weaker franc. On a harmonised basis, Swiss inflation was 1.2%, compared with 3.8% in the euro area, per swissinfo. The SNB itself says there are "still no signs of second-round effects" and that inflation should stay within its 0–2% target range.
Analysts now expect a hike
The mood among professionals has shifted. In the UBS-CFA survey published on 28 October (78 experts, polled 15–21 October):
About one third expect the SNB policy rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points within twelve months.
Only one fifth expect no hike at all. In April and July, two thirds had expected no change.
The average inflation expectation for next year is 1.1%, and 60% expect inflation of 1% or more.
Expectations of a renewed franc appreciation have "clearly strengthened."
At the same time, economic expectations fell sharply: the UBS-CFA indicator dropped 17.9 points to -15.3, its steepest fall since March 2026, per Trading Economics. Assessments of the current situation, however, improved to +26.7. The SNB expects GDP growth of 1.5–2.0% for 2026 and around 1.5% for 2027 (SNB summary).
What it means for you in Switzerland
Savings accounts: With the policy rate at 0% and SARON slightly negative, interest on ordinary savings accounts remains very low. Even with inflation at 1%, cash in a typical account is likely losing purchasing power in real terms. A hike would help savers, but it is a forecast, not a decision.
Holidays and imports: A weaker franc makes trips abroad and imported goods a bit more expensive than in spring. If you hold foreign-currency cash for travel, the timing of conversions matters more than it did.
Foreign investments: Many CHF investors hold US or euro assets. A weaker franc has flattered those returns in franc terms. If the franc strengthens again, as more analysts now expect, that tailwind could reverse. Currency-hedged funds are one way some investors manage this.
Mortgages: Talk of higher SNB rates feeds into longer-term borrowing costs. SARON mortgages track the policy rate directly; fixed rates move with market expectations.
No panic signal: Inflation is still well within the SNB's target, and core inflation is only 0.5%. The SNB has not signalled a hike.
What to watch next
October CPI from the FSO in early November: does inflation keep rising above 1%?
The SNB's next monetary policy assessment in December, and whether its language on inflation changes again.
EUR/CHF: whether carry trades keep pushing the franc weaker, or haven flows return.
Oil prices, the main driver of Swiss inflation this year.
Decisions by the ECB and the Fed, which shape the rate gap the SNB cites.
General information only, not investment, tax or legal advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Figures come from the sources linked above and are preliminary. Independent; not affiliated with any exchange or authority.
Allgemeine Information, keine Anlageberatung. · Information générale, pas un conseil en placement. · Informazione generale, non consulenza in investimenti.