● THE FRANC DAILY · FRIDAY, 30 OCTOBER 2026 · 07:00 · 3 MIN READ
Guten Morgen · Bonjour · Buongiorno · Good morning, {{first_name|there}}.
Two of the world's biggest central banks paused this week, and both left the door open to a hike in December. The Swiss National Bank sits at 0%. That gap is today's main story for anyone who holds francs. Overnight, an AI-driven selloff hit Tokyo and Seoul, and oil stayed above $115.
Markets at 07:00
Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
SMI (close 29 Oct) | 14,756.86 | +1.21% |
EUR/CHF (05:39) | 0.9199 | +0.04% |
USD/CHF (05:39) | 0.8219 | −0.27% |
Nikkei 225 (intraday) | n/a | about −2.8% |
ASX 200 (intraday) | n/a | about +0.4% |
S&P 500 (close 29 Oct) | 7,720.39 | −0.30% |
Gold, USD/oz (01:18) | 4,012.34 | −0.2% |
Brent, USD/bbl (02:22) | 115.74 | +0.75% |
Bitcoin, USD (30 Oct) | 77,028 | −0.99% |
Times are Zurich time. Sources: AWP via MarketScreener (SMI), Exa market data (FX, BTC), Investing.com (Nikkei, ASX, 04:16), AP (S&P 500), ET Now (gold), Reuters via CNBC (Brent). Tokyo and Sydney were still trading at our cut-off, so we show the move, not a closing level. Indicative only.
01 · THE STORY THAT MATTERS
The Fed and the ECB pause, but both point to December. The SNB stays at 0%.
The US Federal Reserve held its range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a 10 to 2 vote; Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted a hike straight away (Yahoo Finance). On Thursday the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50% (ECB), with euro-area inflation at 3.8% and money markets pricing about a 67% chance of a December hike (CNBC). The ECB also said President Christine Lagarde will step down early, in February 2027 (finanzen.ch). The SNB kept its own rate at 0% in September (SNB).
Why it matters: When dollar and euro rates rise while Swiss rates stay at zero, it becomes cheaper to borrow in francs and invest elsewhere. That tends to weigh on the franc, which makes imports and holidays abroad a little dearer but helps Swiss exporters. This morning a dollar buys about 0.82 francs and a euro about 0.92.
02 · ASIA & AUSTRALIA
AI worries knock Tokyo and Seoul; the Bank of Japan holds
Japan's Nikkei fell about 2.8% and Korea's KOSPI more than 5%, led by chip stocks such as Advantest, Lasertec, Samsung and SK Hynix, after weak US tech results revived doubts about whether AI spending will pay off. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.5% and Australia's ASX 200 about 0.4% (Investing.com). The Bank of Japan kept its rate at 1.25%; Tokyo core inflation was 2.6% in October, keeping a December hike in play (CNA/Reuters).
Why it matters: The SMI is dominated by pharma, food and financials rather than chipmakers, so it has less direct exposure to this selloff, but nervous markets often send money into the franc as a safe haven.
03 · UNITED STATES
Alphabet drags Wall Street; Amazon and Intel slide after hours
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,720.39 and the Nasdaq 1.4% after a historic drop in Alphabet's stock on weaker-than-expected growth, even though most stocks in the index rose (AP). Amazon fell 7.3% in extended trading as spending surged, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.5% in Asian hours (CNBC-TV18). Data showed US growth of 3.4% annualised in Q3 and PCE inflation of 3.6% in September (TradingKey).
Why it matters: Strong growth plus sticky inflation is what keeps a December Fed hike on the table, and that feeds straight into the dollar-franc rate.
04 · OIL
Brent near $116 after Houthi attacks on Saudi sites
Brent rose to $115.74 early on Friday and is on course for a gain of nearly 14% in October, after Yemen's Houthis said they had attacked Saudi facilities including the Ras Tanura refinery and an Aramco site in Abqaiq (Reuters via CNBC).
Why it matters: Energy is the main reason the ECB is talking about hikes, and it filters into Swiss heating oil and fuel prices too.
05 · SWITZERLAND
SMI closes at a record; a Zurich biotech cuts almost half its staff
The SMI closed 1.21% higher at a record 14,756.86 on Thursday, with 17 of 20 stocks up; Novartis rose 2.4% to a record and UBS almost 3% (AWP via MarketScreener, RTTNews). Molecular Partners plans to cut up to 55 jobs, about 44% of its workforce, by the second quarter of 2027 to focus on cancer radiopharmaceuticals (MarketScreener).
Why it matters: Thursday's record came before the overnight tech selloff, so today's open will show whether Swiss defensives keep attracting money.
NUMBER OF THE DAY
~14%
Brent's gain so far in October, its steepest monthly rise since July (Reuters via CNBC), and the main reason inflation, not growth, is driving central banks this autumn.
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY (ZURICH TIME)
06:30: Bank of Japan press conference with Governor Ueda.
08:29: German flash inflation for October.
09:00: KOF Economic Barometer for Switzerland (forecast 108.1, previous 109.1).
10:00: German Q3 GDP, first estimate.
11:00: Euro-area flash Q3 GDP and unemployment.
13:30: US Employment Cost Index; 17:00 and 17:30: Fed speakers Daly and Musalem.
Next week: the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday, with markets leaning towards a hike (Market Index).
Calendar: Kinzan. Forecasts are consensus estimates.
YOUR TURN
Would a weaker franc change any of your plans, from holidays to mortgages? Just hit reply. Every reply is read.
Tomorrow: The Franc Daily at 07:00. Sunday: The Sunday Read.
General information only, not investment, tax or legal advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Independent; not affiliated with any bank, the SNB or any authority.
Allgemeine Information, keine Anlageberatung. · Information générale, pas un conseil en placement. · Informazione generale, non consulenza in investimenti. · General information, not investment advice.